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Practice English Speaking&Listening with: Larry Kudlow: America is working

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285, AND AWAY WE GO.

ALL RIGHT LARRY KUDLOW IS NOW

WITH US.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, HE'S WITH

THE NATIONAL COUNSEL DIRECTOR

AND HE JOINS US NOW ALL SET

LARRY HERE WE GO.

HERE'S MY INTERPRETATION I'LL

START WITH MY POINT OF VIEW.

ON THE YOU NIGH IF I WAS GOING

TO DO THIS I THINK IT IS VERY,

VERY MODEST JOB GROWTH IN A

SLOWING ECONOMY WHICH IS BEING

SLOWED BY UNCERTAINTY OVER CHINA

TRADE.

TELL ME I'M WRONG.

GO AHEAD.

>> YOU'RE WRONG.

[LAUGHTER]

>> EXPONGED ON THAT WILL YOU.

>> NO STUART, YOU KNOW, I HAVE

GREATEST RESPECT FOR YOU.

NOBODY BETTER IN THE BUSINESS

LOOK --

LET ME JUST TRY TO --

ILLUMINATE NUMBERS 130,000

PAYROLL A SOLID NUMBER NOT A

SPECTACULAR NUMBER BY THE WAY

SEASONABLY, THE AUGUST PRINT

CIALLY COMES IN LOW AND THEN

REVISED HIGH OR.

BUT LET'S NOT GET THAT OUT.

HERE'S THE STORY.

HERE IS THE STORY.

OKAY --

THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY.

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY FROM WHICH

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ARE DERIVED

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY TENDS TO BE

SMALLER BUSINESS NEWER

BUSINESSES, AND LEADING

INDICATOR EXPLODED EXPLODED.

590,000 NEW JOBS IN THE

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY.

THAT IS VIRTUALLY UNPRECEDENTED

STUART, AND THIS IS THE THIRD

STRAIGHT MONTH OKAY --

LET ME READ YOU --

373,000 AVERAGE, 373 AVERAGE FOR

THE LAST THREE MONTHS THIS FROM

THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, BLOWOUT

NUMBERS SHOWS YOU REAL HEALTH

ANOTHER NUMBER I WANT TO SAY

THIS, CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE UP 571,000

AGAIN, THE THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH

THE AVERAGE IS 425.

WAS THAT MEAN CIVILIAN LABOR

FORCE?

THAT IS PEOPLE COMING BACK IN TO

THE REPORT OF LABOR FORCE.

WE SOMETIMES SAY THEY'RE COMING

OUT OF THE WOODWORK.

THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY AT 590, THE

INCREASE OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE

571 TELLS ME THAT AMERICA IS

WORKING.

AND THAT IS SO IMPORTANT.

AND FINAL POINT STU FINAL POINT

ON THE WAGE FINISH AVERAGE

HOURLY EARNINGS 12 MONTH CHANGES

3.2%.

BUT IN THE LAST THREE MONTHS ALL

RIGHT WHILE WE'VE SEEN AN

EXPLOSION IN THE SMALL BUSINESS

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, AND EXPLOSION

IN NEW LABOR FORCE ENTRANCE, THE

WAGE RATE FOR THE LAST THREE

MONTHS AT ANNUAL RATE IS 4.2%.

SO I'M JOUST GOING TO SAY THIS.

AMERICA'S WORKING, AMERICA IS

GETTING PAID WELL.

AMERICA IS SPENDING, AND SAVING

AND PRODUCING.

SO I THINK THIS IS A DYNAMITE

REPORT WHICH GOT TO LOOK UNDER

HOOD MANY ANALYSTS DON'T.

>> YOU'RE LUCKY TO HAVE ME ON

HERE.

I USED TO DO THIS FOR A LIVING.

SO --

OUR HARRY I'M STILL DOING IT FOR

A LIVE OKAY.

>> WE CAN LOOK UNDER THE HOOD

AND FIND THESE NUMBERS.

BUT I'M REALLY QUITE SERIOUS.

THIS I'M NOT JUST BEING

POLITICAL HERE.

THESE ARE ACTUAL FACTUAL NUMBERS

THAT NEED TO BE COVERED.

BECAUSE THEY TELL A MUCH

DIFFERENT STORY THAN THE

HEADLINES.

>> OTHER PART OF MY OPINION

WHICH I EXPRESSED A MOMENT AGO

IS IT SHALL THE ECONOMY IS

SLOWING.

IN PART BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY

OVER CHINA TRADE.

WHAT CAN YOU TELL PUS ABOUT

CHINA TRADE, THE CONVERSATIONS

THAT YOU HAVE BEEN HAVING THE

TELEPHONE CALLS BEEN MADE

MEETINGS THAT IS GOING TO TAKE

PLACE NEXT MONTH HOW COULD YOU

CHARACTERIZE STATE OF THE TRADE

NEGOTIATION AND WE'RE AT ON THE

SUBJECT.

IS THERE A CHANCE THAT AFTER A

THESE MEETINGS THIS WILL BE A

VERY MODEST AGREEMENT ON BUYING

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS AND DROP

THE TARIFFS?

AND THEN CONTINUE TALKING ON THE

MORE ISSUE OF INTELLECTUAL

PROPERTY THEFT WHERE ARE WE

GOING HERE?

>> I DON'T TO PREDICT

OUTCOME I'LL JUST SAY THIS.

KUDLOW ACTUALLY ALWAYS BETTER TO

TALK THAN NOT TO TALK.

SO --

EVEN THOUGH GOING BACK TO MAY WE

WERE DISAPPOINTED WE THOUGHT WE

WERE CLOSING IN ON AN AGREEMENT.

AND OUR CHINESE TRENDS WITHDREW

ALL RIGHT.

BUT WE'VE BEEN IN COMMUNICATION

WITH THEM THE WHOLE TIME.

AND SO NOW AFTER A THE PHONE

CALL EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH

SECRETARY MNUCHIN AND

AMBASSADORLIGHT HOUSE AND HIS

TEAM IT WAS IT DOESED THAT

DEPUTIES, THE DEPUTIES ON BOTH

TEAMS WILL CONVENE HERE IN

WASHINGTON, D.C.

LATER THIS MONTH AND PRINCIPLE

NEGOTIATORS MR. MNUCHIN AND

MR. LIGHTHIZER WILL JOIN HIMMING

AND HIS TEAM I SUPPOSE IN EARLY

OCTOBER HASN'T BEEN SET YET.

THAT BY ITSELF IS VERY GOOD

THING A VERY GOOD THING HAD.

SO WE ARE BACK NOW TO THE TABLE.

PENCHT OTHER NEGOTIATIONS CALM?

IS THE ATMOSPHERE CALM BETWEEN

THE TWO SIDES?

NOT SHOUTING AND SCREAMING?

>> LOOK, IF THEY WERE YELLING

AND SCREAMING --

THEY WOULDN'T HAVE IS --

COME I DON'T KNOW 18 HOUR PLANE

FLIGHT I'VE MADE IT A COUPLE OF

TIMES THEY'RE COMING THAT'S A

VERY GOOD THING.

>> ANY INDICATION FROM THE PHONE

CALLS THAT CHINA IS PREPARED TO

GO BACK TO WHERE IT WAS BEFORE

THEY WERE MADE?

>> LOOK, I CANNOT POSSIBLY BE

SPECIFIC ON THAT.

THOSE NEGOTIATIONS TRICKY

BUSINESS LIKE LABOR NEGOTIATIONS

YOU KNOW ONE STEP AT A TIME ONE

POINT AT A TIME COMING BACK TO

THE TABLE IS A GOOD THING.

NOW AS FAR AS I KNOW, AND MY

CONVERSATION WITH MY

COLLEAGUES --

ALL THE TOPICS WILL BE ON THE

TABLE.

I MEAN WE WOULD PREFER THAT

QUESTION GO BACK TO MAY WHERE WE

WERE MAYBE 90% HOME ON A DEAL.

BUT WE'LL SEE.

I DON'T TO PREDICT I DON'T TO

SUGGEST ANYTHING.

LAST EVENING AND THIS MORNING I

SPOKE TO MY COLLEAGUES MNUCHIN

AND LIGHTHIZER ON HAVE VERY

POINT YOU CAN REST ASSURE STUART

THAT EVERYTHING WILL BE ON THE

TABLE.

YOU CAN REST ASSURED FOR EXAMPLE

THE ABSOLUTE KEY STRUCTURAL

ISSUES THE IP THEFT FORCE

TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY,

CYBERSPACE, THE CLOUDS, THE

FINANCIAL SERVICES, ALL OF THAT

WILL BE ON THE TABLE.

AGRICULTURAL PURCHASES

INDUSTRIAL PURCHASES, ENERGY

PURCHASES, GETTING TARIFF AND

NONTARIFF A BARRIERS DOWN SO

CHINA OPENS ITS ECONOMY.

THAT'S WHAT AMERICA WANTS.

TRUMP IS DETERMINED TO DEFEND

AMERICAN ECONOMY AND WORK FORCE.

AND WE MUST DO THIS BECAUSE OF

CHINA'S UNFAIR TRAINING

PRACTICES WHICH WE HAVE

DISCUSSED BUT WE'RE GOING TO

HAVE THIS WHOLE BROAD-BASED

DISCUSSION.

AND WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS LOOK,

OUR IMHI ECONOMY IS VERY STRONG

THEIR ECONOMY IS NOT.

NAIR LOWERING THE U --

THAT IS ESSENTIALLY NEUTRALIZE

IT IS THAT IMPACT ON OUR

CONSUMERS BUT IT PUTS CHINA IN A

VERY BAD PLACE WITH CAPITAL

FLIGHT AND DISINVESTMENT I DON'T

TO GO INTO THAT DETAIL BUT WE

THINK THEY NEED A DEAL PRESIDENT

TRUMP THINKS THEY NEED A DEAL

PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS SAID

PREENGTLY EVERY DAY RECENTLY

HE'S --

HE WOULD MAKE A DEAL.

AS LONG AS IT'S A GOOD DEAL FOR

THE UNITED STATES.

HOPEFULLY IT WOULD BE A GOOD

DEAL FOR BOTH COUNTRIES.

PRESIDENT TRUMP BELIEVES CHINA

WOULD LIKE A DEAL.

BUT IT WILL BE HAMMERED OUT AND

THAT MEANS IF I MAY, WE HAVE THE

BEST NEGOTIATORS IN THE

BUSINESS.

ALL RIGHT IF I MAY --

BOB LIGHTHIZER BEST TRADE GUY IN

THE BUSINESS AND INCIDENTALLY

NEVER TALK ABOUT THIS RIGHT IN

FRONT OF US AS CONGRESS COME

BACK AND SESSION --

THERE'S A USMCA MEXICO CANADA

USA DEAL THAT WOULD ADD AT LEAST

A HALF A POINT TO OUR GDP WITH A

COUPLE OF HUNDRED THOUSAND JOBS

EVERY MONTH THAT WOULD BE

FANTASTIC.

WE ANNOUNCED AT THE G7 AND

FRANCE, I WAS OVER THERE.

THE OUTLINE OF A DEAL WITH JAPAN

THAT DEAL MAY BE FINISHED AND

ANNOUNCED IN ENTIRETY AT THE

U.N. MEETINGSES COMING UP IN A

COUPLE OF WEEKS, AND HECK, WE

EVEN SOLD SOME BEEF TO EUROPEAN

UNION THEY SAID IT COULDN'T BE

DONE AND I THINK THOSE TALKS ARE

CONTINUING.

SO BY LOWERING TRADE BARRIERS,

THAT IS PROGROWTH THAT IS THE

PRESIDENT'S VISION.

BUT HE INSIST THERE HAS TO BE

REST AND HE'S GOT TO DEFEND THIS

COUNTRY'S ECONOMY AND ITS WORK

FORCE.

ARE WE GOING TO GET BACK TO 3%

GROWTH?

FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR.

3%?

ABOUT SECOND QUARTER 2%.

"THE NEW YORK TIMES" THIS

MORNING SAYING A PERIOD OF

SLUGGISH GROWTH LOOKS MORE

LIKELY TO BE IMMEDIATE FUTURE.

ARE YOU PREDICTING A BOUNCEBACK

TO 3% GROWTH IN THE THIRD AND

MAYBE FOURTH QUARTERS OF THE

YEAR?

>> I LIKE WHAT I SEE, STU.

I LIKE WHAT I SEE AS I'VE SAID

PING UNDERNEATH HOOD THESE JOB

NUMBERS, OR VERY POWERFUL.

I THOUGHT ISM SERVICES RELEASE

WAS ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT.

ABSOLUTE E BLOWOUT, CONFERENCE

BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

ABSOLUTE BLOWOUT ESPECIALLY BY

THE WAY, IN THE JOBS CATEGORY.

NOW, QUESTION HAVE SEEN A LITTLE

SOFTNESS IN PRODUCTION AND

CURABLE GOODS AND CAP SPENDING

SOME SAW THAT WHATS ALONG A

CYCLE, YOU KNOW YOU GO UP AND

DOWN --

I NOTICED DURABLE GOODS

PARTICULARLY THE CORE IS NOW

PICKING UP THE ORDER BOOKS

ARISING BY BETTER THAN 6 PBT

ANNUALLY OVER THE FAST THREE

MONTHS I LIKE THAT VERY, VERY

MUCH.

WAGES, SALARIES HERE'S ANOTHER

ONE FOR YOU STU.

PRODUCTIVITY NOW I'LL GO EIGHT

QUARTERS EIGHT QUARTERS.

1.8% THAT'S A TREMENDOUS

PAKISTAN FROM THE PRIOR I DON'T

KNOW TEN YEARS OR MORE AND

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IS 1.3% EIGHT

QUARTERS REASON I SAY THAT IS AS

A RULE OF THUMB, BACK OF THE

ENHAVE THEY ENVELOPE REAL GDP

EQUALS PRODUCTIVITY PLUS

EMPLOYMENT GROAT, GETS YOU TO

OVER 3% RIGHT NOW SO IF WE

REMOVED SOME OF THE MONETARY

OBSTACLES AND WE CONTINUE OUR

INCENTIVES WITH LOW TAX RATES

AND ROLLED BACK OF REGULATION

AND CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL ENERGY

I'M GOING TO PLAY THIS ON THE

BULLISH I'M SURE YOU'RE SHOCKED

TO HEAR THAT AND I'LL PLAY

WHAT --

WHAT STEW VARNEY WHATEVER YOUR

NUMBER IS I'LL TAKE IT OTHER AS

I ALWAYS DO.

[LAUGHTER]

YOU'VE BEEN RELATIVELY RIGHT.

SOME KUDLOW FORECAST IS BETTER

THAN OTHERS.

OVER LAST 40 YEARS BUT --

SO FAR THE OPINION SOME VARNEY

OPINIONS ARE BETTER THAN OTHERS

I MIGHT THAT AS WELL THAT'S A

MATTER OF FACT LARRY I'M AFRAID

WE'RE OUT OF TIME BUT WE

APPRECIATE IT ALWAYS WHEN YOU'RE

The Description of Larry Kudlow: America is working