Whats up youtube and welcome to a new video.
On this channel, the AMG GT R is known for its extremely high depreciation in the
first few years.
After all, it usually leads the ranks on the various depreciation leaderboards.
Yet, this also means that after they took the initial hit, they offer extremely good
value for money.
All of this makes it really interesting to have a look at the market right now.
Used car prices have been on the rise fueled by a decrease in supply and increase in demand.
Supply mainly has been scarce by limited production following shortage in the chip sector, im
sure you have seen this in the news lately.
Demand has been elevated by several reasons, but a key driver seems to be the pandamic.
It didnt effect everyone equally and the ones which were not affected managed to save
up a bit.
All of this and more I covered in this video over here, and you can check that out by clicking
on the link over here.
So the market is hot.
But is it so hot that it could offset the one of the steepest depreciation curves which
features on the channel, the on of the AMG GT R. That is what we will find out in todays
So even if you are not in the market for the GT R, I think that its really interesting
to see how these prices reacted to the current market uptick.
As always, we start with a market overview.
The graph over here shows todays market.
We have the model year on the horizontal axis and the price in us dollars on the vertical
We are then also looking at the us market.
Each car is displayed by a buble and the market is split by the roof type and the model type.
In blue we have the coupe pros, in orange the roadsters, and in green the normal gt
Finally, also need to know that the black xes represent the median pricepoint for each
model year and type.
Now then, first we can see that todays market is really small.
There are only 45 cars for sale.
This ofcouse makes it tricky to apply any kind of quantitative technique.
We can also see that prices deviate a lot between the model year and model types.
Higher mileage base models go for 120k while new cars can go for 210k.
This already signals that this market has a steep depreciation curve.
We can see the same large price variation in the roadster and the pro market.
You can find 2020 roadster already for 180k but prices go up till 230k.
Pros start a bit higher at 190k and go up till 250k.
I mentioned this already in some other videos, but it really surprised me how mixed the prices
are at the upper part of the market.
You can get a normal GT R, a roadster, or a pro for more or less the same price.
If you had 200k to spare.
Which one would you go for?
Let me know in the comment section.
But now, lets have a look at the price development over time.
Did prices follow the market trend or are the idiosyncratic forces so strong over here
that prices continued to decline?
Lets have a look.
Before we do so.
Please hit the like button.
The graph over here show the development of the median price point for the different markets.
We have now the date on the horizontal axis and the price still on the vertical axis.
And look at that, those price developments dont look at all like the market trend.
Every single submarket of the amg gt r market saw a price decrease between march 2020 and
Moreover, it seems that during the last 8 months the decrease accelerated for the base
And this is the exact opposite of what happened with most car prices.
The coupes dropped with 12k or 7% and the roadsters with 16.5k or 7.7%.
Yet, these price decreases are not fully statistically confirmed.
Also, it is remarkable that we cant see the same decreases in the market.
Prices over there didnt move at all.
So what on earth is going on it the AMG GT R market?
Lets dig a bit deeper in the data and we start with the coupe base market, its namely
so that a certain market segment is driving prices down.
The graph over here shows the median price development for each model year and it only
covers the base coupe models.
We can see immediately that the drop is coming from the 2020 and 2019 cars.
Between march 2020 and now they lost respectively 10,7k and 24,6k or 6.2 and 9%.
Yet, as you will see soon, we cant really trust this orange line here because we have
too few observations.
For 2018 cars we can see a very stable development.
Prices didnt really move during last year.
So whats happening here?
Lets have a look at the raw data.
Over here we have again the mileage the model year to price relationship and each date is
marked with a different color.
The cars in model year 2020 simply decreased because the new cars took their first depreciation
hit and no new cars where added to the market.
If we look first at the blue dots only, then we can see that these are all prices above
One year ago, this market segment did then also mainly consist out of new cars.
Six months later, in September 2020, we can see that the orange dots start at 160k.
Yet, at the same time, you can see that there is still a significant portion prices above
This difference what you see here is the difference between the new and the used market.
Now if we look then at the green dots, so todays market, then we can see that they are
prices at the bottom of the market one year ago or even below that.
In todays market we do then also have only used cars for sale.
Yet, plenty of used cars have only a few hundred miles and are therefore price quite cars.
Cars with 5 to 6000 miles are priced around 170k.
They did then also face the forecasted depreciation hit of around 30k.
For 2019 cars we have, as you can see, too few data points.
There are only 3 cars for sale in tdays market so that doesnt tell us so much about the
For 2018 cars we have enough data and here you can see that that market hardly moved.
But this by itself is also remarkable.
After all, most of the cars which I analysed on my channel saw an increase of 78%.
Could it be then so that 2018 cars were driven a lot and that this dampened the price increase?
Lets have a quick look at the depreciation per 1000 miles before we look at the roadsters.
The graph over here has now the mileage on the horizontal axis and the price still on
the vertical axis.
Each data is again displayed with a different color.
First, you can see that the blue and the orange lines are extremely similar.
The market between march and September 2020 didnt change so much for the 2018 cars.
The current market looks slightly different as the median mileage a bit between now and
But not really enough to play of significant importance.
Its difficult to say here that the green dots clearly lay above the other ones.
Moreover, you can see that for all dates, the shaded area is really large.
This means that there is quite a lot of uncertainty in the market.
The price variation for each mileage is then also large.
Now according to the green depreciation curve, the average depreciation per 1000 miles for
2018 cars lays currently at 1455 or 1%.
This is a good score, but like I mentioned, you need to interpret this number with some
Alright, lets do a little summary after all of those graphs.
On a total level, we saw that prices for the GT R base model decrease.
Yet, things are not always what they seem.
We namely saw that this decrease is caused by the new cars which gathered there first
The used car market was very stable and values didnt change there.
Yet, this by itself is also a bit of a surprising finding as most used card prices surge.
2018 cars are on the flattest part of the depreciation curve for this market, however,
based on the data, it seems to be so that the depreciation effect was more less as strong
as any value increase coming from the wider market.
Hence, prices didnt move.
But now then, does this the same go for the roadster market?
There we saw a similar price decrease as in the base coupe market.
I checked the data for this market and the reason behind the price decrease is the same.
A few cars took there first depreciation hit and are now priced under 190k.
These cars are driving the prices down.
Alright, so what about the pro then?
Values over there were really stable.
And what about the Pro market?
There we didnt see a price decrease at all.
Because this model is still really new, we only have cars from model year 2020.
So lets have a look at the mileage to price relationship.
There could be something going on in this market.
You can see now that in match 2020, so the blue dots, most cars were priced around 215k.
Yet, you can see that mileage in some cases realy deteriorated the value as the cheapest
pro was for sale at 180k.
Six months later, so at the orange dots, most cars are still for sale at 215k.
Yet, the two cars with around 4,300 miles were priced between 180 and 200k.
Exactly in the same range as the cars with less than 1000 miles in march 2020.
Now in todays market, most cars are still priced for 215k.
Yet, we can see that it is important to look further than the movement in the median prices.
In todays market the median mileage is namely 2,500 while this was 0 in the previous timestamps.
We can see then also that the higher mileage cars are way more expensive than before.
In line with this, market supply also decreased a lot.
It went from 27 to 7 cars, and, with a potential increase in demand, this might have resulted
in what is actually a price increase.
Yet, as you can see, the data is extremely limited so keep that in mind.
And with that lets wrap up and conclude.
The AMG GT R market is a bit of a double edged sword.
On the hand, the depreciation on new cars is enormous and in fact one of the largest
which I have seen on the channel.
I believe only the mclaren 720s topped it.
Yet, once they took two years of depreciation, they also start off great value for money.
Compared to a similar age 911 GT3, its a lot cheaper and compared to a 570s it offer
way more reliability.
Nevertheless, this doesnt seem enough to drive prices up.
For new , non pro cars, we saw that values decreased quite a bit.
However, based on the limited data what we have, the decrease seems to be slightly less
than what was originally estimated.
But in the end, the trend in used car prices was not enough to offset the value decrease.
For the older cars the same line of reasoning goes but over there the trend in used car
prices was strong enough to offset any further price decrease.
The older cars are ofcourse on the flatter part of the depreciation curve which means
that it is easier to offset any price decrease.
With that we arrive at the end of